The results of the 2025 midterm elections delivered more than new names to the upper chamber. They revealed a political realignment that could shape the final three years of the Marcos presidency and cast a long shadow over the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.
The new Senate defies the old binaries of pro-admin versus opposition. Instead, it has morphed into a spectrum of factions: the reformist bloc powered by surprise winners Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, the entrenched Duterte-aligned bloc led by Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, and Imee Marcos, a populist flank with Tulfo and Marcoleta, and perhaps a transactional middle inclined toward maintaining committee power rather than clear ideological positions.
Cracks in the Uniteam Myth
The so-called “Uniteam” forged in 2022 between Marcos and Duterte is now in shambles. The impeachment trial of VP Sara Duterte will serve as the ultimate stress test of this rupture. While the Duterte bloc remains formidable, they do not control the numbers needed to unilaterally save her should public sentiment and evidence mount against her.
Senators who once campaigned with Sara are now under pressure to behave like impartial judges. The days of blind allegiance are fading fast as voters, emboldened by the electoral upset, demand greater accountability.
A Senate That Might Say ‘No’
For President Marcos, this Senate is both an opportunity and a liability. While he may still cobble together a working majority on economic legislation, he will face tougher scrutiny, more investigative hearings, and greater resistance to opaque budget insertions or political appointments. Gone are the days of rubber-stamp politics. Expect Senators like Ping Lacson, Risa Hontiveros, and Kiko Pangilinan to probe and demand detail.
It’s no longer just about loyalty, it’s about leverage. And with 2028 looming, many senators will weigh every vote not just on policy merit, but on political survival.
The Reform Bloc’s Cautious Revival
The comeback of Aquino and Pangilinan, backed by Leni Robredo and Risa Hontiveros, signals renewed appetite for value-based politics. But this bloc must avoid the mistakes of the past: exclusivity, moral grandstanding, and tactical rigidity. If it wants to lead post-Marcos, it must build bridges, not just with each other, but with a citizenry battered by inflation, disinformation, and disillusionment.
Implications for 2028
The reconfiguration of the Senate also redraws the early maps for the 2028 presidential elections. Sara Duterte’s once-inevitable run is now under legal and political siege. Bongbong Marcos, meanwhile, must choose between consolidating his camp or playing kingmaker to avoid a full-blown succession war.
And in the background, an emerging coalition of reformists and technocrats is preparing its next move.
Final Thought: A Chamber in Flux
The 20th Congress is not a Senate in harmony; it is a Senate in flux. It is less predictable, more performative, and potentially more democratic. That makes it dangerous for those in power and hopeful for those who still believe institutions can work.
If this new Senate finds its courage, not just its committees, it could restore public faith in representative democracy. But if it folds under pressure or politics-as-usual resumes, the window opened by the 2025 elections may slam shut just as quickly.
The real battle begins now. Not between left and right, nor even Duterte and Marcos but between those who serve the public, and those who only serve themselves.
